Get it right by chance?

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Expipiplusone, Jul 10, 2016.

?

If you chose randomly the answer to this very question, what's the probability of getting it right?

  1. A) 25%

    5.0%
  2. B) 50%

    55.0%
  3. C) 25%

    25.0%
  4. D) 0%

    15.0%
  1. Expipiplusone

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    If you chose randomly the answer to this very question, what's the probability of getting it right?
     
  2. 29dude

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    always pick C
     
  3. greenobeano

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  4. SirChilledMrHobo

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    Well the four options, being a, b, c, or d, would be 25% each. Seeing how 25 times 4 is 100. So 25%, no matter wich one you choose.

    But as a great life lesson in life, if you must guess, pick c.
     
  5. Expipiplusone

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    There's two "25%" options, so if "25%" is the correct answer, then you have 50% probability to guess right :p
     
    #5 Expipiplusone, Jul 10, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2016
  6. rNin

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    Ok, answer A is totally deserted as well as B.
    When will you reveal the answer? c:
     
  7. Expipiplusone

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    At some unspecified point, in the (not so) near future... :playful:
     
  8. rNin

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    Ok, then the answer may be revealed next week.
    *cough* submit coins *cough*
     
  9. Expipiplusone

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    Oh well, I'll just post the solution.

    • You would guess that, having 4 choices, if you chose one randomly you have a 1/4 probability to chose the correct one, and therefore the answer would be "25%": but there's two "25%" options, so if that's the correct answer, you actually have a 50% probability to catch it, not 25%!
    • Ok, then... the answer must be "50%"! But... there's only one "50%" option out of four, so if that's the correct answer, then the probability to chose that randomly is 25%, not 50%. Uhm.
    • What about D? Maybe it's just impossible to give a correct answer, and therefore the probability is just 0%! It makes perfect sense! But... if "0%" is the correct answer, then you have... an actual 25% probability to catch it by chance. wattaffuq.

    The question is just ill posed. It's not that there's no way to answer correctly (if that was the case, then "0%" would be correct - but that would be contradictory, as shown): it's more like that the question itself doesn't make any sense. It's not a question with no correct answer: it's a non-question. And if you try to answer a non-question, anything you say will just be bullshit. Anything. (trolol)

    p.s: if there's any lesson at all to learn from this, it is that sometimes*, when it seems you can't find an answer to a question, maybe you should reconsider the question in the first place.


    *I said sometimes: don't use this as an excuse to avoid answering a perfectly well posed, but difficult, question. And if you find a truly ill posed question, maybe a better idea would be to rephrase it, rather than just dismissing it: that would be an awesome opportunity to understand something new.
     
    #9 Expipiplusone, Jul 12, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2016
  10. rNin

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    pure mindfuck